U.S. Secures 15% Cut from Nvidia and AMD’s China AI Chip Sales

Nvidia and AMD have agreed to give the U.S. government 15% of their AI chip sales revenue from China as a condition for obtaining export licenses,  covering Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 AI accelerators.

The move follows a partial reversal of export restrictions: Nvidia’s ban on H20 chip exports was lifted after a meeting between CEO Jensen Huang and former President Trump. The U.S. Commerce Department has since begun issuing licenses for both Nvidia and AMD.

Geopolitical and industry analysts have expressed mixed reactions. Geoff Gertz, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, remarked, “It’s wild, either selling H20 chips to China is a national security risk—in which case we shouldn’t be doing it—or it’s not—so why impose this tax?”

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick described the resumption of H20 exports as part of broader U.S.–China negotiations, noting it helps maintain ties to the American “tech stack.”

Some experts, however, see the deal as a pragmatic compromise. A Bloomberg analysis labels the revenue-sharing model “unusual,” but potentially necessary to preserve access to China’s AI market.

Investors responded positively: shared buzz suggests this agreement lifted uncertainties around regulatory access, pushing up stocks of Nvidia, AMD, and Taiwan Semiconductor.

The economic impact is substantial. Analysts project that Nvidia alone could generate $23 billion in 2025 from H20 chip sales in China—making the 15% cut highly material.

Policy observers warn of longer-term consequences. Export licenses, once tools of national security, may now serve dual purposes—regulatory levers and fiscal assets—shaping future chip diplomacy between Washington and Beijing.